Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
60 0x601d…e1cb other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$209 (+30%) realized +$209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$451
sports 10% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +40.9% +27.5% 75% 75% +39.9%
≤30d 4 +40.9% +27.5% 75% 75% +39.9%
≤90d 4 +40.9% +27.5% 75% 75% +39.9%
all 4 +40.9% +27.5% 75% 75% +39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.5% 75% +39.9%
10% +15.3% 75% +26.5%
15% +4.2% 75% +14.3%
20% -6.0% 50% +3.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$70 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.44 per $1 lost it wins $6.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $273 +$176 +64%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $252 +$120 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$154 +152%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $71 −$70 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $450 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $273 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $373 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $252 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $256 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 19h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $71 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records