Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:59:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x601a…cf9d crypto 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate75%130W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day167.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -0.6% -10.0% 75% 73% -8.5%
≤30d 174 -0.6% -10.0% 75% 73% -8.5%
≤90d 174 -0.6% -10.0% 75% 73% -8.5%
all 174 -0.6% -10.0% 75% 73% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover167.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 73% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 37% -17.2%
15% -26.5% 21% -25.2%
20% -33.7% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses130 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day167.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 91¢ 98¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$7 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $24 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $16 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $16 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $16 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.23 · official $23.03 · 370 history records