Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
60 0x6018…170c culture 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy culture specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,692 (+9%) realized +$4,704 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%53W / 68L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$411per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$277
7 days+$338
14 days+$65
30 days−$1,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 93% +$5,442
other 7% −$1,039
sports 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.6% -25.4% 60% 50% +1.2%
≤30d 33 -31.5% -38.0% 33% 30% -18.5%
≤90d 81 -6.9% -15.8% 40% 38% -4.3%
all 121 -2.1% -11.4% 44% 40% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 40% -1.5%
10% -19.9% 32% -10.9%
15% -27.6% 29% -19.5%
20% -34.7% 22% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$362 vs −$217 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$383
Realized+$4,704
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses53 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)121 / 129
History coverage580d
Avg bet$411
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 64¢ 61¢ $161 $153 −$8 (-5%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $69 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+11%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $2,393 +$277 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 14 $57 +$15 +26%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $203 +$42 +21%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $219 +$99 +45%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $750 +$618 +82%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 08 $424 −$396 -94%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 07 $415 −$313 -75%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 06 $141 −$141 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 06 $42 −$37 -88%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 05 $77 −$58 -75%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 05 $93 −$46 -49%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 02 $309 +$245 +79%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 01 $522 −$340 -65%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? May 31 $129 −$110 -86%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 30 $1,210 −$193 -16%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 61m and 67m? May 29 $6 −$4 -75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $22 −$21 -98%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 61m? May 28 $63 −$58 -93%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 53m and 57m? May 28 $75 −$70 -94%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9.5m and 11m? May 27 $4 +$11 +317%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $1,052 +$949 +90%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 24 $423 −$348 -82%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9.5m? May 23 $629 −$609 -97%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 22 $1,009 −$625 -62%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? May 22 $72 −$70 -97%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 20 $31 −$26 -82%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? May 17 $120 −$101 -84%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? May 16 $283 +$719 +254%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 16 $687 +$649 +94%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m? May 16 $99 −$86 -87%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 12 $3,412 +$824 +24%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 11 $465 +$343 +74%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 11 $393 +$81 +20%
Will "Michael" be the second highest grossing movie of this weekend? May 10 $26 −$16 -59%
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$10 +99%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 10 $708 −$226 -32%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and May 09 $124 −$73 -59%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and May 08 $83 −$62 -75%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m May 06 $26 −$18 -69%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7 May 05 $1,724 +$690 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $123 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 25h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 93¢ $625 2d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 95¢ $29 2d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 2d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,335 2d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 95¢ $42 2d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 95¢ $162 2d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 95¢ $152 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $91 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 51¢ $20 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 SELL Yes 20¢ $73 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 28¢ $10 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 37¢ $55 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY Yes 5¢ $8 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 41¢ $82 5d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 45¢ $45 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 33¢ $109 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 6d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 36¢ $36 6d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 56¢ $136 6d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 70¢ $39 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.76 · official $382.76 (match) · 1141 history records