Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

60 0x6017…1d1b other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$105 (+22%) realized +$83 · open +$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown7%max

Avg bet$41per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Kalshi-fit42%portable

Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-16.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-31.6%	-38.1%	33%	33%	+73.6%
≤30d	5	-7.4%	-16.2%	60%	40%	+65.6%
≤90d	5	-7.4%	-16.2%	60%	40%	+65.6%
all	5	-7.4%	-16.2%	60%	40%	+65.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.2%	40%	+65.6%
10%	-24.2%	40%	+49.8%
15%	-31.6%	40%	+35.3%
20%	-38.3%	40%	+22.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +83% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +83% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs −$3 · ×10.46 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×15.68 per $1 lost it wins $15.68

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$382

Realized+$83

Unrealized+$22

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Open positions7

Markets (closed)5 / 12

History coverage9d

Avg bet$41

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	58¢	84¢	$50	$72	+$22 (+44%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	57¢	57¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$107	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 19	$2	−$2	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 11	$5	+$3	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 11	$10	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$2	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$5	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$5	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$5	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$5	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$5	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.05 · official $382.05 (match) · 17 history records