Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x600d…d10d crypto 504 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$295 (-4%) realized −$295 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%272W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$53
14 days−$339
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$490
other 1% −$20
finance 0% −$4
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 54% -12.2%
≤30d 382 -8.0% -16.8% 52% 47% -14.6%
≤90d 503 -6.1% -15.0% 54% 48% -15.0%
all 503 -6.1% -15.0% 54% 48% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 48% -15.0%
10% -23.1% 42% -23.2%
15% -30.6% 36% -30.6%
20% -37.4% 28% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$295
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses272 / 231
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)503 / 504
History coverage71d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 195 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$36 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$19 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$23 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$12 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$14 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$16 +163%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$12 +39%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.82 · official $4.82 (match) · 846 history records