Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x600b…14b1 sports 250 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,348 (-24%) realized −$1,348 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%119W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$162
14 days+$153
30 days−$796
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,668
other 10% +$253
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +30.7% +18.2% 52% 52% +50.6%
≤30d 178 -0.8% -10.3% 49% 49% -29.0%
≤90d 239 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 49% -32.6%
all 239 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 49% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 49% -32.6%
10% -20.4% 49% -39.0%
15% -28.1% 44% -44.9%
20% -35.1% 40% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$1,348
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses119 / 120
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions11
Markets (closed)239 / 250
History coverage37d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Linda Noskova 83¢ 80¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 54¢ 34¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-36%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Julia Grabher 71¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+41%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 56¢ 74¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 36¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 56¢ 66¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 50¢ 38¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Darya Astakhova 62¢ 78¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 62¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+54%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Noemi Basiletti 79¢ 22¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-72%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$12 -75%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 +$2 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $12 +$18 +152%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $4 −$1 -40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +179%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $8 −$6 -74%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 +$5 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$4 -71%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 +$109 +261%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$14 +276%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 +$7 +93%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -30%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $15 +$83 +566%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1 +$1 +52%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $1 +$2 +124%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $2 +$3 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $4 −$2 -62%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $5 +$4 +90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $154 −$148 -96%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $87 −$87 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 50¢ $2 13m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 57¢ $3 14m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $2 14m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $2 20m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $2 22m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 83¢ $11 24m
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ $3 24m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 62¢ $3 25m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $6 46m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $2 54m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 56¢ $4 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 79¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 79¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 52¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 55¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $3 1h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 71¢ $6 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 62¢ $2 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 45¢ $1 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ $1 6h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $1 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $1 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $2 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $12 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.57 · official $63.71 (match) · 662 history records