Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6004…d30f crypto 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$289 (-2%) realized −$229 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate70%142W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$324
7 days+$443
14 days+$443
30 days+$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$498
other 1% +$19
sports 0% −$12
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +5.1% -4.9% 75% 55% +2.4%
≤30d 73 +5.1% -4.9% 75% 55% +2.4%
≤90d 203 -1.2% -10.6% 70% 44% -12.3%
all 203 -1.2% -10.6% 70% 44% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 44% -12.3%
10% -19.1% 27% -20.7%
15% -27.0% 19% -28.4%
20% -34.1% 9% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$37 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$229
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses142 / 61
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)203 / 205
History coverage64d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $203 +$50 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $141 +$24 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $141 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$26 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $142 +$44 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$84 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$40 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$49 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$16 -79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$24 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $41 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $40 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $41 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $41 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 483 history records