Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5F 0x5fff…224d sports 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$123 (+2%) realized +$128 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%143W / 117L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$921now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days−$129
14 days−$128
30 days−$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$20
other 33% +$58
crypto 30% +$56
world 0% −$5
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -13.3% -21.5% 59% 34% -13.4%
≤30d 228 -14.3% -22.4% 50% 36% -12.3%
≤90d 260 -2.6% -11.9% 55% 41% -8.1%
all 260 -2.6% -11.9% 55% 41% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 41% -8.1%
10% -20.3% 37% -16.9%
15% -28.0% 35% -24.9%
20% -35.1% 32% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$921
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses143 / 117
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)260 / 263
History coverage103d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $902 $897 −$5 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$13 +51%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $252 −$27 -11%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $150 +$5 +3%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $201 −$196 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $6 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $6 +$6 +90%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $6 +$6 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $3 +$7 +197%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$10 +62%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 +$5 +56%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $7 +$5 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +52%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $24 −$10 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$6 +65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$33 +50%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$6 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $200 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 75¢ $151 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 24¢ $23 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $155 2h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $150 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 7¢ $2 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 93¢ $93 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 21¢ $2 3h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 13h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 35¢ $5 14h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 83¢ $344 20h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 83¢ $561 21h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 82¢ $887 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 0¢ $0 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 23h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $7 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $5 29h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL EDward Gaming 1¢ $0 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 56¢ $6 30h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $3 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $920.85 · official $920.85 (match) · 546 history records