Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5F 0x5ffe…160e world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$363per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$516now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-12.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-5.3%	-14.3%	0%	0%	-11.3%
≤30d	5	-3.2%	-12.4%	0%	0%	-10.2%
≤90d	5	-3.2%	-12.4%	0%	0%	-10.2%
all	5	-3.2%	-12.4%	0%	0%	-10.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.4%	0%	-10.2%
10%	-20.8%	0%	-18.8%
15%	-28.4%	0%	-26.7%
20%	-35.4%	0%	-33.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$13 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$516

Realized−$10

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage7d

Avg bet$363

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	95¢	95¢	$516	$516	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?	Jun 28	$515	$0	+0%
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Jun 23	$81	−$13	-16%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	Jun 23	$70	$0	+0%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?	Jun 21	$499	$0	+0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31?	Jun 21	$498	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$516	31m
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?	SELL No	92¢	$515	42m
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?	BUY No	92¢	$515	1h
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	SELL Yes	7¢	$68	5d
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$40	5d
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$41	5d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	SELL Yes	7¢	$70	5d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	BUY Yes	7¢	$34	5d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	BUY Yes	7¢	$36	5d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?	SELL No	95¢	$499	7d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?	BUY No	95¢	$499	7d
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31?	SELL No	95¢	$498	7d
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31?	BUY No	95¢	$498	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $515.98 · official $515.98 (match) · 13 history records