Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5ffe…e48b weather 477 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,872 (+1%) realized +$2,722 · open +$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%417W / 14L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$865per market
Trades / day89.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$16,216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$19,181
other 0% +$1
politics 0% +$2
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -2.6% -11.8% 96% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 373 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 431 +7.1% -3.1% 97% 3% -5.2%
all 431 +7.1% -3.1% 97% 3% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 3% -5.2%
10% -12.4% 2% -14.3%
15% ← realistic here -20.9% 1% -22.6%
20% -28.6% 1% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,262) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$272 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.99 per $1 lost it wins $5.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$16,216
Realized+$2,722
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses417 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions47
Markets (closed)431 / 477
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$865
Trades / day89.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,308 $3,402 +$94 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,077 $3,080 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,512 $2,532 +$20 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,187 $2,201 +$14 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $948 $952 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $815 $821 +$6 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $688 $689 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $661 $663 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $449 $450 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $340 $339 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? No 91¢ 91¢ $314 $313 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $291 $300 +$9 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 97¢ $292 $291 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? No 96¢ 95¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 97¢ 95¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? No 97¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $454 +$46 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4,054 +$56 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,169 +$15 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $887 +$5 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 8? Jun 15 $1,248 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $580 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,020 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3,524 +$58 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $208 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,046 +$19 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,097 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $237 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,887 +$15 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $1,287 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,341 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2,934 +$29 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $498 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $359 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $55 0m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $299 28m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $597 29m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $15 46m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $14 50m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $14 52m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $299 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $199 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $172 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $398 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $199 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $118 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $259 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $247 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $62 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $113 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,216.40 · official $16,216.40 (match) · 3500 history records