Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5F 0x5ffc…0bc2 crypto 1790 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$541 (+0%) realized +$541 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate93%1667W / 123L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,851
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 285 +3.6% -6.3% 96% 12% -6.1%
≤30d 732 +1.2% -8.4% 93% 13% -10.2%
≤90d 1790 +1.1% -8.5% 93% 14% -10.5%
all 1790 +1.1% -8.5% 93% 14% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 14% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 8% -19.0%
15% -25.2% 5% -26.9%
20% -32.6% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$218 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$541
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1667 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1790 / 1790
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$204
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1790 Trades
no open positions (89 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$18 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records