Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5ffa…e625 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$216 (-8%) realized −$261 · open +$45
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$216
crypto 6% $0
sports 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.7% -1.7% 30% 25% -20.8%
≤30d 20 +8.7% -1.7% 30% 25% -20.8%
≤90d 20 +8.7% -1.7% 30% 25% -20.8%
all 20 +8.7% -1.7% 30% 25% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 25% -20.8%
10% -11.1% 25% -28.4%
15% -19.7% 25% -35.3%
20% -27.6% 20% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$71 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized−$261
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)20 / 27
History coverage7d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 55¢ $99 $143 +$44 (+45%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $89 $91 +$2 (+2%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $88 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 87¢ $90 $87 −$3 (-3%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 36¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $251 −$8 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$94 +335%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$16 -16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 −$93 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $102 −$10 -9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $208 −$206 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 +$246 +456%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $121 +$155 +128%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$126 +139%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$88 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $243 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $45 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $45 13h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $41 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $0 37h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $3 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $3 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $1 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $6 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $6 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $4 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $0 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $5 38h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $33 38h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 42h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 42h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $23 43h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $73 43h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $99 43h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 44h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 44h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $19 44h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $68 46h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $98 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $152 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $89 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $86 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $94 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.43 · official $469.46 (match) · 79 history records