Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5ff8…973d world 71 markets active 4d ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,424 (+36%) realized +$4,086 · open −$662
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%12W / 44L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$436
30 days−$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$3,370
politics 24% +$491
other 5% −$432
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -61.8% -65.4% 20% 20% -44.0%
≤90d 47 -8.8% -17.5% 26% 26% +48.4%
all 56 -23.1% -30.4% 21% 21% +36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 21% +36.7%
10% -37.1% 21% +23.6%
15% -43.2% 18% +11.7%
20% -48.7% 14% +0.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +51% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$714 vs −$102 · ×7.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$680
Realized+$4,086
Unrealized−$662
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 44
Open positions15
Markets (closed)56 / 71
History coverage190d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 28¢ 66¢ $100 $237 +$137 (+137%)
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $210 $128 −$82 (-39%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 42¢ 18¢ $240 $107 −$133 (-55%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes 29¢ 21¢ $97 $70 −$27 (-28%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $100 $30 −$70 (-70%)
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026? Yes 54¢ 40¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $100 $11 −$89 (-89%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $50 $9 −$41 (-82%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $80 $2 −$77 (-97%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $51 $2 −$49 (-96%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-96%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 43¢ 1¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $351 +$436 +124%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $343 +$58 +17%
Will the People Power Party win less than or equal to 1 seat in South May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the People Power Party win 0 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 May 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 23 $438 −$425 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $175 −$175 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 13 $40 +$108 +270%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $140 −$140 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial May 04 $390 +$671 +172%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 24 $350 −$350 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 24 $349 −$349 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $221 −$221 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $167 −$167 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Moon Jin-seok win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? Apr 17 $272 −$272 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $652 +$232 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 13 $170 −$170 -100%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $31 −$31 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Apr 10 $201 +$61 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $100 +$127 +127%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $651 +$2,809 +432%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $216 +$3,660 +1695%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Apr 07 $402 +$263 +65%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $20 −$19 -94%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Mar 31 $200 +$66 +33%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Mar 24 $201 +$75 +37%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Park Sung-jae in jail by March 31? Mar 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes 8¢ $35 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 13¢ $83 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 28¢ $104 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $100 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 28¢ $100 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 19d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 19d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 21¢ $100 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 23d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 23d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 23d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 71¢ $101 23d
Will the People Power Party win less than or equal to 1 seat in South BUY Yes 42¢ $10 23d
Will the People Power Party win 0 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 BUY Yes 6¢ $10 23d
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 23d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 21¢ $336 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 9¢ $80 34d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 2¢ $20 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $40 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 34d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 15¢ $55 43d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $40 43d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 43d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 43d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $679.58 · official $678.96 (match) · 229 history records