Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5ff7…ba04 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,183 (+5%) realized +$1,184 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate70%58W / 25L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days+$70
30 days+$895
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$1,228
crypto 6% −$6
politics 2% −$24
other 1% +$26
tech 1% +$7
sports 1% −$40
economics 0% −$17
finance 0% +$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -66.3% -69.5% 0% 0% -69.5%
≤30d 10 +2.7% -7.0% 70% 50% -2.5%
≤90d 47 -1.1% -10.5% 77% 30% -4.9%
all 83 -0.1% -9.6% 70% 27% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 27% -5.2%
10% -18.3% 12% -14.2%
15% -26.2% 7% -22.5%
20% -33.4% 4% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$30 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$1,184
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses58 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage226d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 26 $22 −$15 -66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $500 +$235 +47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,500 +$310 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $100 +$96 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2,750 −$560 -20%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 13 $30 +$3 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $2,620 +$143 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,101 +$558 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,950 +$147 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $3,684 +$44 +1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? May 25 $80 −$1 -1%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? May 24 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 24 $21 +$3 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 24 $22 +$3 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 24 $1,730 +$56 +3%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 22 $8 +$7 +84%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,520 +$149 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,520 +$62 +4%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? May 16 $53 +$4 +7%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 16 $22 −$22 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,505 +$9 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 14 $18 −$18 -99%
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? May 14 $18 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in May 2026? May 14 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 14 $1,490 −$1 -0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 12 $20 +$1 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 12 $18 −$5 -29%
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral May 12 $12 +$2 +17%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 07 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? May 07 $20 +$2 +10%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 07 $25 +$6 +25%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 25 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Apr 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? Apr 25 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 16 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 16 $18 +$3 +16%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 16 $13 $0 +3%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat Apr 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 06 $16 −$10 -61%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $22 +$5 +20%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 04 $26 +$1 +5%
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31? Mar 31 $16 +$1 +4%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31? Mar 31 $19 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 31 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 31 $24 +$1 +2%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 26 $20 +$4 +18%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? Mar 10 $20 +$3 +16%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Mar 04 $5 +$9 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $54 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,500 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 68¢ $500 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2,190 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $23 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2,750 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,763 18d
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,620 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $2,101 29d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,950 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 93¢ $1,859 32d
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 93¢ $79 32d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $14 32d
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 94¢ $1,880 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 91¢ $1,869 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 88¢ $1,804 33d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $11 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,730 34d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 96¢ $15 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? SELL No 100¢ $1,669 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 91¢ $1,520 37d
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? SELL No 100¢ $1,582 37d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 40d
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 94¢ $80 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.08 · official $95.08 (match) · 223 history records