Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:56:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5F 0x5ff7…f7f0 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$995 (+3%) realized +$446 · open +$549
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate94%29W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$710per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$8,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$313
14 days+$343
30 days+$624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$394
other 45% +$443
politics 2% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.5% -3.6% 100% 33% -2.2%
≤30d 10 +5.8% -4.3% 100% 10% -2.7%
≤90d 31 +4.1% -5.8% 94% 16% -8.0%
all 31 +4.1% -5.8% 94% 16% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 16% -8.0%
10% -14.8% 10% -16.8%
15% -23.1% 6% -24.9%
20% -30.6% 6% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$961) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$377 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$8,289
Realized+$446
Unrealized+$549
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses29 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)31 / 42
History coverage78d
Avg bet$710
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $1,624 $1,870 +$246 (+15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $1,751 $1,830 +$79 (+5%)
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? No 91¢ 95¢ $1,600 $1,664 +$64 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $887 $963 +$76 (+9%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $702 $731 +$29 (+4%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $441 $492 +$50 (+11%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $437 $440 +$3 (+1%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $188 $187 −$1 (-0%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 84¢ 86¢ $84 $86 +$2 (+3%)
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? No 79¢ 80¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? No 93¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? Jun 24 $1,519 +$118 +8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $583 +$7 +1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 18 $1,764 +$188 +11%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Jun 15 $315 +$30 +10%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,085 +$60 +6%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? May 31 $468 +$18 +4%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $285 +$16 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 31 $471 +$18 +4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 30 $1,827 +$169 +9%
NATO dissolves before 2027? May 20 $407 +$9 +2%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 18 $271 +$49 +18%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 15 $435 −$285 -66%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 11 $656 +$3 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1,159 +$16 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? May 07 $372 +$8 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 06 $466 +$20 +4%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30? May 06 $58 +$4 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 05 $388 +$6 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 04 $667 −$469 -70%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 03 $959 +$20 +2%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $961 +$37 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $96 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $1,075 +$12 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 29 $1,473 +$24 +2%
Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election? Apr 28 $14 +$1 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $845 +$24 +3%
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $49 +$37 +76%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 25 $787 +$12 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $634 +$148 +23%
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? Apr 20 $32 +$24 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY No 97¢ $123 1h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY No 96¢ $24 1h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $149 1h
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $15 1h
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 4h
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $11 4h
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $16 4h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $47 4h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $197 4h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $215 4h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $81 4h
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY Yes 87¢ $87 9h
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY Yes 87¢ $87 9h
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY Yes 87¢ $87 15h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 93¢ $6 28h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $59 28h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $75 28h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $97 28h
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $36 28h
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $8 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $133 4d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 4d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 4d
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 4d
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $60 4d
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $577 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,289.18 · official $8,289.18 (match) · 497 history records