Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:57:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5ff3…d25a other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,240 (+1%) realized +$1,239 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$1,386per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days+$18
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$13
politics 40% −$90
sports 5% +$1,533
world 3% −$268
economics 3% −$5
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$21
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 +3.4% -6.4% 12% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 115 -0.0% -9.5% 10% 9% -8.9%
all 115 -0.0% -9.5% 10% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 9% -8.9%
10% -18.2% 8% -17.6%
15% -26.1% 8% -25.5%
20% -33.3% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,672) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$7 · ×24.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized+$1,239
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage78d
Avg bet$1,386
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $367 $367 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,716 −$5 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,300 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $968 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,372 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,991 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,186 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1,115 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $900 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $83 +$54 +65%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $5,530 −$6 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,085 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $121 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,204 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $997 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,092 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,123 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $341 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $48 +$24 +50%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,439 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,091 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $725 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 23 $49 +$66 +134%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2,114 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,081 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $65 +$46 +70%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 20 $1,166 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,637 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,352 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $22 +$11 +50%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 18 $1,252 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $758 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $759 2h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $688 2h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $689 5h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $814 5h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $815 8h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $700 28h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $701 33h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $759 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $760 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $680 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $680 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $909 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $367 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $910 3d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $966 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $968 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,118 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,119 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $902 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $904 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $863 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,129 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,130 9d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,114 9d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,115 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,092 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,094 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.37 · official $367.37 (match) · 355 history records