Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5ff3…5125 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$773 (-7%) realized −$773 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$698per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,561now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$6
politics 47% −$779
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 14 -0.8% -10.3% 93% 0% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -17.0%
10% -18.9% 0% -25.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -32.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$780 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$2,561
Realized−$773
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage613d
Avg bet$698
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,030 $1,031 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,020 $1,019 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $511 $512 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $687 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,871 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 05 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 05 $140 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 16 $210 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $521 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $519 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $5,023 −$780 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,030 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,020 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $511 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,871 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $687 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $103 397d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $140 397d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 397d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $30 397d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? BUY No 100¢ $210 425d
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? BUY No 100¢ $91 425d
Will Solana reach $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 425d
Dogecoin all time high in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 425d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 425d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $287 453d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $234 453d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? BUY Yes 100¢ $134 511d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 511d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? BUY Yes 100¢ $96 511d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 511d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? BUY Yes 100¢ $139 511d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 38¢ $61 601d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 38¢ $121 601d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 38¢ $74 601d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 38¢ $120 601d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 38¢ $83 601d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 38¢ $3,784 601d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 45¢ $5,023 612d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,561.42 · official $2,559.08 (match) · 41 history records