Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:47:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5ff1…3463 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$77 (+9%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$37
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$28
other 29% +$17
politics 13% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +48.4% +34.3% 100% 67% +5.4%
≤30d 5 -11.0% -19.4% 60% 40% -7.1%
≤90d 5 -11.0% -19.4% 60% 40% -7.1%
all 18 -3.1% -12.4% 61% 50% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 50% -0.5%
10% -20.8% 44% -10.0%
15% -28.4% 33% -18.7%
20% -35.4% 22% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage616d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $182 +$8 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Saints vs. Chargers Oct 11 $47 +$5 +10%
Bills vs. Chiefs Jan 27 $200 −$1 -0%
Rams vs. Eagles Jan 19 $20 +$5 +25%
Commanders vs. Lions Jan 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Texans vs. Chiefs Jan 19 $40 +$9 +22%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 19 $18 −$18 -100%
East Carolina vs. NC State Jan 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Commanders vs. Cowboys Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Vikings vs. Lions Jan 19 $20 +$14 +70%
Texans vs. Titans Jan 19 $20 +$23 +117%
Jones vs. Miocic Nov 17 $32 +$7 +20%
Oliveira vs. Chandler Nov 17 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $107 +$96 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $191 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $132 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 2h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 8d
Saints vs. Chargers BUY Chargers 91¢ $20 310d
Saints vs. Chargers BUY Chargers 91¢ $27 310d
Bills vs. Chiefs SELL Chiefs 55¢ $79 506d
Bills vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 68¢ $50 506d
Bills vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 71¢ $50 506d
Bills vs. Chiefs SELL Chiefs 66¢ $120 506d
Bills vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 55¢ $100 512d
Rams vs. Eagles SELL Rams 30¢ $25 513d
Rams vs. Eagles BUY Rams 24¢ $10 513d
Rams vs. Eagles BUY Rams 24¢ $10 513d
Texans vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 78¢ $20 514d
Texans vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 86¢ $20 514d
Commanders vs. Lions BUY Lions 81¢ $30 514d
Commanders vs. Cowboys BUY Cowboys 35¢ $10 527d
Vikings vs. Lions BUY Lions 59¢ $20 527d
Texans vs. Titans BUY Texans 46¢ $20 527d
East Carolina vs. NC State BUY NC State 42¢ $10 535d
East Carolina vs. NC State BUY NC State 74¢ $20 535d
Seahawks vs. 49ers BUY 49ers 85¢ $18 576d
Oliveira vs. Chandler BUY Oliveira 69¢ $20 576d
Jones vs. Miocic BUY Jones 83¢ $32 576d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 53¢ $107 616d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records