Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fef…ee82 other 270 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$803 (+7%) realized +$803 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%106W / 159L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$708
14 days+$742
30 days+$709
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 49% +$1,039
other 43% −$319
crypto 5% −$144
sports 3% +$79
world 0% +$3
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -20.3% -27.9% 42% 31% +0.6%
≤30d 202 -16.5% -24.4% 45% 34% -0.5%
≤90d 265 -20.8% -28.4% 40% 31% -3.9%
all 265 -20.8% -28.4% 40% 31% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 31% -3.9%
10% -35.2% 21% -13.1%
15% -41.5% 17% -21.5%
20% -47.2% 12% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$803
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses106 / 159
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)265 / 270
History coverage62d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -85%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $141 +$18 +13%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +64%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $70 +$3 +5%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$4 -37%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 27 $1 $0 -42%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $1 $0 -33%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $11 −$8 -69%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $263 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $29 −$16 -56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $80 +$15 +19%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 25 $12 −$7 -54%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $19 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $4 +$3 +68%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $3 +$7 +237%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $60 +$13 +21%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14 −$3 -23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $159 +$15 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 25 $232 −$8 -4%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 −$3 -34%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $3,020 +$781 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $17 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 −$4 -56%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$5 +172%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $33 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -26%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 −$9 -29%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -32%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 +$8 +152%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 4m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 31m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1 SELL 7¢ $0 33m
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 39m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 40m
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 40m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $80 55m
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 58m
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 59m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals AND Kevin Pina: 1+ goals AND Gilson Benchi BUY 27¢ $2 1h
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 A BUY 2¢ $1 1h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 73¢ $30 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 54¢ $19 2h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.31 · official $64.31 (match) · 1071 history records