Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5F 0x5fee…a1fb crypto 809 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$319 (-6%) realized −$319 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate58%466W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$36
14 days−$52
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$422
sports 0% −$20
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -43.1% -48.5% 37% 32% -25.5%
≤30d 57 -25.5% -32.6% 51% 37% -22.7%
≤90d 439 -37.7% -43.6% 37% 28% -24.8%
all 809 -4.5% -13.6% 58% 43% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 43% -17.1%
10% -21.8% 35% -25.0%
15% -29.4% 29% -32.2%
20% -36.3% 23% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$319
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses466 / 343
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)809 / 809
History coverage107d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 809 Trades
no open positions (106 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$8 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$25 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$8 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$20 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 29 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 29 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 29 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 29 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 29 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 29 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 29 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 29 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 29 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2356 history records