Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5F 0x5fe9…bb0a crypto 372 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 221d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$152 (+0%) realized +$307 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%129W / 235L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$100
14 days−$21
30 days+$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$2,640
world 1% −$444
economics 1% +$258
other 0% −$200
sports 0% −$307
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -48.6% -53.5% 33% 25% -12.9%
≤30d 35 -28.2% -35.1% 37% 31% +1.8%
≤90d 62 -22.6% -30.0% 44% 37% -4.6%
all 364 +6.7% -3.5% 35% 25% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 25% -10.4%
10% -12.7% 21% -19.0%
15% -21.1% 19% -26.8%
20% -28.9% 17% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +74% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$95 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$4,166
Realized+$307
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses129 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)364 / 372
History coverage221d ⚠
Avg bet$413
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $2,347 $2,460 +$113 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 91¢ 88¢ $998 $964 −$34 (-3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $242 $338 +$97 (+40%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $448 $159 −$289 (-64%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $147 $128 −$19 (-13%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 70¢ $75 $70 −$4 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $45 $40 −$6 (-12%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 12¢ $19 $6 −$13 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 −$35 -90%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$12 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $483 +$242 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $53 −$52 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $19 +$2 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 15 $1,101 +$36 +3%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$29 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $59 −$58 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $62 −$61 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 12 $170 +$90 +53%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $200 −$46 -23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 09 $212 +$24 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 06 $139 +$122 +88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $126 +$549 +436%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $92 −$87 -95%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $41 +$59 +146%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $74 +$15 +20%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 29 $55 −$52 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? May 19 $74 +$24 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 19 $187 +$272 +146%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? May 05 $37 +$58 +158%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on May 3? May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 2? May 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 2? May 02 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 29 $211 +$136 +64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 26 $180 −$177 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 25 $399 +$84 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 16 $684 +$215 +31%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 16 $327 −$327 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 12 $375 +$202 +54%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 10 $228 −$228 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 10 $544 +$155 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 08 $405 −$387 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $19 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $59 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? SELL No 98¢ $813 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 22h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 92¢ $552 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 23h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL No 92¢ $278 23h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 23h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 33h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 33h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $46 33h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 88¢ $257 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 17¢ $17 3d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 21¢ $11 3d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 21¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $36 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,166.10 · official $4,166.10 (match) · 3500 history records