Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5fe7…1ea9
weather · 305 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$6,090 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,638 · open +$1,155
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,370
Realized+$4,638
Unrealized+$1,155
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses269 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)301 / 305
History coverage156d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 301 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$376
14 days+$58
30 days+$2,909
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 11¢ 97¢ $100 $890 +$790 (+790%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 21¢ 98¢ $100 $466 +$366 (+366%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 97¢ 91¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $283 $0 −$283 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 29? No 0¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 15? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $958 +$32 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $202 +$58 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $136 +$17 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$4 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $416 −$90 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $114 +$10 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $515 +$71 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $252 +$45 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1,008 +$130 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $151 +$27 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $139 +$71 +51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $379 +$104 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $201 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $76 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $428 +$42 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $261 +$42 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $703 +$61 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $201 −$34 -17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $288 −$283 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $100 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 04 $86 +$13 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 04 $89 +$37 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $305 −$244 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $401 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 03 $105 −$99 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $437 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 86% +$4,236
politics 13% +$280
finance 1% +$1,156
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$108
economics 0% +$4
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $12 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 74¢ $44 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 85¢ $302 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $9 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 73¢ $22 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 70¢ $106 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $240 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +1.3% -8.3% 90% 35% -1.3%
≤30d 126 +5.8% -4.2% 89% 29% +3.5%
≤90d 277 +6.8% -3.3% 90% 32% +2.4%
all 301 +6.1% -4.0% 89% 31% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 31% +2.3%
10% -13.2% 19% -7.5%
15% -21.6% 10% -16.4%
20% -29.3% 6% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,370.12 · official $1,370.12 (match) · 1537 history records