Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fe5…7de3 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$300 (-4%) realized −$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate53%26W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$5
crypto 23% −$311
other 16% +$2
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
weather 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +1.0% -8.6% 62% 6% -9.4%
all 49 -16.4% -24.4% 53% 18% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 18% -13.6%
10% -31.6% 16% -21.8%
15% -38.2% 12% -29.4%
20% -44.3% 10% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$33 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses26 / 23
Open positions6
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage136d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 22? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 22? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $29 +$4 +15%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $429 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,160 +$1 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $758 −$2 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $358 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $406 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $529 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $225 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Mar 18 $246 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Mar 16 $83 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $233 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 11 $102 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 21 $75 +$75 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 21 $70 +$39 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 21 $49 +$25 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 21 $35 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11AM ET Feb 21 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12PM ET Feb 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 21 $65 +$80 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 21 $130 +$39 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 21 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 21 $72 +$27 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 21 $55 +$73 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 21 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $78 −$1 -2%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Feb 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 Jan 31 $82 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 26d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 26d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 55d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 55d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 55d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 55d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 55d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 55d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 55d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 56d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 56d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $28 56d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 56d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $412 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 60d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.14 · official $49.14 (match) · 466 history records