Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5F 0x5fe2…4da7 crypto 92 markets active 2d ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+5%) realized +$67 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%51W / 40L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$67
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$80
crypto 27% −$23
politics 20% −$50
sports 15% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -4.2% -13.3% 47% 47% -18.0%
≤30d 91 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 45% -4.4%
≤90d 91 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 45% -4.4%
all 91 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 45% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 45% -4.4%
10% -15.6% 41% -13.6%
15% -23.8% 31% -21.9%
20% -31.2% 26% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses51 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage40d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Yes 36¢ 20¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$9 +216%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $18 +$13 +70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $18 +$14 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 +$29 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13 +$6 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $18 +$23 +126%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$7 -77%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $18 −$18 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 02 $8 −$6 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $18 +$30 +165%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $34 +$21 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $18 +$16 +89%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $19 +$33 +171%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $37 +$24 +64%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? May 31 $7 +$8 +107%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4 +$3 +82%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $13 +$11 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 27 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 27 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 27 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 27 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 27 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 27 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 27 $3 +$4 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $18 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $31 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $18 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $18 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $21 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $18 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 4d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $18 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $18 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 92¢ $33 13d
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 13d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 13d
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes $2 13d
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 13d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 43¢ $18 13d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 67¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.63 · official $16.63 (match) · 238 history records