Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5F 0x5fdf…ba05 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$458 (+29%) realized +$458 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$321per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-9.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-0.2%	-9.7%	75%	50%	+7.6%
≤30d	4	-0.2%	-9.7%	75%	50%	+7.6%
≤90d	4	-0.2%	-9.7%	75%	50%	+7.6%
all	4	-0.2%	-9.7%	75%	50%	+7.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.7%	50%	+7.6%
10%	-18.3%	50%	-2.7%
15%	-26.2%	50%	-12.1%
20%	-33.4%	0%	-20.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$155 vs −$203 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$458

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage4d

Avg bet$321

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 21	$203	−$203	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 21	$201	+$16	+8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$583	+$266	+46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$401	+$183	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$218	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$101	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$583	11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$584	14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$54	18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$347	18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	34¢	$216	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records