Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5fdf…3dd0 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$48 (+5%) realized +$70 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$41
sports 8% −$3
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.5% -4.6% 73% 60% +9.7%
≤30d 15 +5.5% -4.6% 73% 60% +9.7%
≤90d 15 +5.5% -4.6% 73% 60% +9.7%
all 15 +5.5% -4.6% 73% 60% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 60% +9.7%
10% -13.7% 53% -0.8%
15% -22.0% 27% -10.4%
20% -29.7% 13% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.26 per $1 lost it wins $4.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$568
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)15 / 25
History coverage8d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $210 $199 −$11 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 81¢ $120 $140 +$20 (+17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 74¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 14¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 19 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $101 +$35 +35%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$7 -14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $5 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $15 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $11 1h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 82¢ $26 1h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $27 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 40h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 91¢ $136 40h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY 69¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $101 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 18¢ $44 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $11 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 77¢ $5 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.66 · official $567.68 (match) · 49 history records