Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5F 0x5fde…9d65 crypto 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-9%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 86d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.7% +1.1% 75% 50% -16.8%
≤30d 6 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 50% -16.3%
≤90d 6 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 50% -16.3%
all 18 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 50% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 50% -18.6%
10% -15.9% 39% -26.4%
15% -24.0% 28% -33.5%
20% -31.5% 28% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage86d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$10 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 20 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 20 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 20 $15 +$2 +11%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 20 $18 +$12 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 20 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 20 $12 +$15 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 20 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 20 $26 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $6 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $48 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 90d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 90d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $41 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $12 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records