Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fde…46e8 politics 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$19
politics 35% −$17
sports 12% −$13
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 134 -0.4% -9.9% 7% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage131d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $253 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $244 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $194 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $434 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $271 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 16 $254 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $235 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $489 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $183 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $215 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $221 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $195 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $199 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $170 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $234 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $191 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $221 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $190 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $222 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $423 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $251 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $242 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $210 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $217 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $255 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $272 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $257 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $240 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $41 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 22d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $261 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $261 25d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $244 26d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $244 27d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $191 27d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $191 29d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 29d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 30d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $234 31d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $234 31d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $219 31d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $219 32d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $212 32d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $212 33d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $269 33d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $269 33d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $271 34d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $271 34d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 35d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $192 35d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $254 35d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $254 35d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $243 36d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $243 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 418 history records