Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5F 0x5fdd…855e other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-46%) realized −$12 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$15
sports 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-74.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -64.1% -67.5% 25% 25% -45.9%
≤30d 5 -71.3% -74.0% 20% 20% -70.4%
≤90d 5 -71.3% -74.0% 20% 20% -70.4%
all 5 -71.3% -74.0% 20% 20% -70.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.0% 20% -70.4%
10% -76.5% 20% -73.2%
15% -78.8% 20% -75.8%
20% -80.9% 0% -78.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage18d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 55m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 56m
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 5h
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.48 · official $5.48 (match) · 9 history records