Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fdb…6c61 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day122.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -26.8% -33.7% 44% 32% -6.9%
≤30d 25 -26.8% -33.7% 44% 32% -6.9%
≤90d 25 -26.8% -33.7% 44% 32% -6.9%
all 25 -26.8% -33.7% 44% 32% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.7% 32% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -40.1% 28% -15.8%
15% -45.9% 16% -24.0%
20% -51.2% 12% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day122.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$43 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $83 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$18 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $211 −$29 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $155 +$33 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $154 −$37 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$50 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $77 +$23 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $83 −$26 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $85 −$55 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $131 +$56 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $129 +$44 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $179 −$25 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $77 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$27 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $89 +$21 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $106 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $87 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $23 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $60 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.30 · official $114.30 (match) · 129 history records