Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5F 0x5fda…01d5 other 106 markets active 11h ago coverage 268d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 267d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,634 (+1%) realized +$2,109 · open −$475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate71%66W / 27L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$1,620per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$11,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 268d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$9,145
world 27% −$249
tech 12% −$735
crypto 11% +$10,744
politics 9% +$506
economics 5% +$1,126
finance 4% −$338
culture 0% −$90
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +19.9% +8.5% 100% 100% +9.7%
≤30d 29 -5.5% -14.5% 69% 31% -12.7%
≤90d 66 -1.8% -11.1% 67% 29% -9.8%
all 93 +26.3% +14.2% 71% 33% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.2% 33% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here +3.3% 22% -7.0%
15% -6.7% 11% -16.0%
20% -15.8% 8% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,428) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +55% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$385 vs −$194 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.24 per $1 lost it wins $5.24
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$11,363
Realized+$2,109
Unrealized−$475
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses66 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)93 / 106
History coverage268d ⚠
Avg bet$1,620
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 69¢ 67¢ $8,248 $8,051 −$197 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $2,325 $2,066 −$260 (-11%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $510 $440 −$70 (-14%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 31¢ 29¢ $124 $119 −$5 (-4%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B? No 78¢ 89¢ $97 $111 +$14 (+14%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $87 $111 +$23 (+27%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $79 $98 +$19 (+24%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $84 $87 +$3 (+4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No 8¢ 8¢ $66 $62 −$4 (-6%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B? No 72¢ 78¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+9%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 83¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 12¢ 12¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Jun 23 $244 +$38 +16%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 22 $473 +$114 +24%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 17 $109 +$57 +52%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 16 $357 +$81 +23%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? Jun 16 $48 +$17 +34%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 16 $24 +$17 +69%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $408 +$59 +14%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $7,975 +$3 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 14 $54 −$41 -77%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 14 $138 −$105 -76%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 14 $857 −$690 -80%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $777 −$3 -0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $9,724 +$136 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $58 −$15 -26%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o Jun 05 $36 +$1 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 05 $3,531 +$352 +10%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 04 $338 +$89 +26%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 03 $6,542 +$24 +0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 02 $73 +$5 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? May 31 $9,263 −$1,460 -16%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? May 31 $256 +$7 +3%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? May 29 $1,246 −$141 -11%
Anduril vs Lockheed Martin - higher valuation on December 31? May 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 26 $97 +$4 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 25 $1,082 −$76 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? May 24 $2,702 +$64 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 24 $390 +$146 +37%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $750 +$30 +4%
Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on June 3 May 21 $26 −$5 -21%
Will Anthropic have the second highest private market valuation on Jun May 21 $147 +$12 +8%
Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30 May 20 $303 +$18 +6%
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June May 20 $358 +$14 +4%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? May 08 $559 +$82 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 04 $19 −$6 -32%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on May 02 $2 $0 +14%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027? Apr 29 $205 +$188 +91%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $917 −$544 -59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 23 $143 −$23 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Apr 21 $340 +$4 +1%
US recession by end of 2026? Apr 18 $7,505 +$1,064 +14%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? Apr 15 $658 +$19 +3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $306 +$6 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? Apr 07 $48 +$8 +17%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Apr 07 $9,933 +$155 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close o BUY Yes 18¢ $45 11h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close o BUY Yes 18¢ $17 11h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $66 18h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $131 18h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 19h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 20h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $98 20h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $201 20h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 20h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 20h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 20h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $1 21h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 21h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 31¢ $14 21h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 21h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $171 21h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? BUY No 8¢ $8 21h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $3 33h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $28 33h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $3 39h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $0 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $28 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $8 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $76 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $11 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $14 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $587 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $75 5d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 5d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,363.31 · official $11,363.31 (match) · 3500 history records