Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fd8…ce32 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,977 (+8%) realized +$13,073 · open +$1,904
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%84W / 8L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$1,361per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$917est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$36,250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days−$5,689
14 days−$21,255
30 days−$15,305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$499
sports 27% +$14,051
world 0% +$6
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +1.4% -8.3% 97% 0% -38.0%
≤30d 89 -1.9% -11.3% 92% 3% -21.4%
≤90d 92 -0.6% -10.0% 91% 5% -1.5%
all 92 -0.6% -10.0% 91% 5% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 5% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 4% -10.9%
15% -26.5% 3% -19.5%
20% -33.7% 3% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$512 vs −$3,795 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$36,250
Realized+$13,073
Unrealized+$1,904
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses84 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$917
Open positions38
Markets (closed)92 / 130
History coverage43d
Avg bet$1,361
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $8,105 $8,107 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $6,136 $5,941 −$196 (-3%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 36¢ $3,010 $3,238 +$228 (+8%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $2,790 $2,809 +$19 (+1%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 92¢ $2,152 $2,558 +$406 (+19%)
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 66¢ $1,962 $2,162 +$200 (+10%)
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 55¢ $1,516 $1,880 +$364 (+24%)
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 85¢ $1,624 $1,700 +$76 (+5%)
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 93¢ 98¢ $1,522 $1,597 +$74 (+5%)
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 59¢ 60¢ $1,042 $1,054 +$12 (+1%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 41¢ 47¢ $671 $760 +$90 (+13%)
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 78¢ $496 $546 +$50 (+10%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $463 $533 +$70 (+15%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $555 $524 −$31 (-6%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $457 $472 +$16 (+3%)
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 51¢ 74¢ $282 $405 +$123 (+43%)
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 55¢ 62¢ $257 $289 +$32 (+12%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 76¢ $188 $227 +$40 (+21%)
Jacob Shaffelburg: 3+ goals No 98¢ 99¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Paraguay finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 18¢ $81 $187 +$106 (+132%)
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 44¢ 52¢ $129 $152 +$24 (+19%)
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 33¢ $62 $116 +$54 (+87%)
Will Netherlands finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 17¢ 34¢ $57 $114 +$58 (+102%)
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 23¢ 40¢ $62 $108 +$46 (+75%)
Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ $41 $97 +$57 (+139%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ben Waine: 3+ goals Jun 16 $323 +$7 +2%
Ali Alipour: 3+ goals Jun 16 $82 +$2 +2%
Ali Alipour: 2+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Mehdi Ghayedi: 2+ goals Jun 16 $52 +$3 +6%
Sarpreet Singh: 2+ goals Jun 16 $69 +$4 +5%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh: 2+ goals Jun 16 $36 +$2 +6%
Shahriyar Moghanloo: 2+ goals Jun 16 $33 +$2 +6%
Ramin Rezaeian: 2+ goals Jun 16 $70 +$4 +6%
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 3+ goals Jun 16 $365 +$9 +2%
Matt Garbett: 2+ goals Jun 16 $269 +$7 +3%
Mehdi Taremi: 3+ goals Jun 16 $133 +$4 +3%
Kosta Barbarouses: 2+ goals Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Saman Ghoddoos: 2+ goals Jun 16 $87 +$3 +4%
Mohammad Mohebbi: 3+ goals Jun 16 $133 +$4 +3%
Chris Wood: 3+ goals Jun 16 $325 +$8 +2%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh: 3+ goals Jun 16 $325 +$9 +3%
Jesse Randall: 2+ goals Jun 16 $65 +$6 +9%
Ben Waine: 2+ goals Jun 16 $72 +$6 +8%
Dennis Eckert: 2+ goals Jun 16 $275 +$11 +4%
Callum McCowatt: 2+ goals Jun 16 $56 +$3 +5%
Lachlan Bayliss: 2+ goals Jun 16 $605 +$19 +3%
Amirmohammad Razaghinia: 2+ goals Jun 16 $124 +$8 +7%
Mahdi Torabi: 2+ goals Jun 16 $141 +$5 +3%
Dennis Eckert: 3+ goals Jun 16 $396 +$9 +2%
Hossein Kanani: 2+ goals Jun 16 $258 +$12 +4%
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 2+ goals Jun 16 $63 +$4 +6%
Ibrahim Adel: 2+ goals Jun 15 $72 +$3 +4%
Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals Jun 15 $72 +$3 +4%
Zizo: 2+ goals Jun 15 $71 +$3 +4%
Amadou Onana: 2+ goals Jun 15 $71 +$3 +4%
Rayan Elloumi: 2+ goals Jun 15 $45 +$2 +4%
Khalil Ayari: 2+ goals Jun 15 $228 +$5 +2%
Ismaël Gharbi: 2+ goals Jun 15 $250 +$5 +2%
Ken Sema: 2+ goals Jun 15 $213 +$4 +2%
Lewis Ferguson: 2+ goals Jun 14 $39 +$2 +4%
Lenny Joseph: 2+ goals Jun 14 $275 +$7 +2%
Lenny Joseph: 3+ goals Jun 14 $359 +$5 +2%
Ross Stewart: 3+ goals Jun 14 $315 +$6 +2%
Ben Gannon-Doak: 3+ goals Jun 14 $438 +$8 +2%
John McGinn: 3+ goals Jun 14 $125 +$1 +1%
John McGinn: 2+ goals Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Frantzdy Pierrot: 2+ goals Jun 14 $27 +$2 +6%
George Hirst: 3+ goals Jun 14 $178 +$4 +2%
Ché Adams: 3+ goals Jun 14 $385 +$8 +2%
Ryan Christie: 3+ goals Jun 14 $310 +$6 +2%
Don Deedson Louicius: 3+ goals Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Don Deedson Louicius: 2+ goals Jun 14 $75 +$4 +5%
Duckens Nazon: 2+ goals Jun 14 $110 +$5 +4%
Duckens Nazon: 3+ goals Jun 14 $110 +$1 +1%
Findlay Curtis: 2+ goals Jun 14 $45 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 33m
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 35m
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 6h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 6h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 6h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $0 7h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $5 7h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 7h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 8h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 8h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $2 8h
İrfan Can Kahveci: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $5 9h
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $55 9h
İrfan Can Kahveci: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $24 9h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $2 10h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $1,134 10h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $1,687 11h
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 24¢ $16 11h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $18 12h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 99¢ $1,240 13h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 99¢ $448 14h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $44 16h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 18h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $160 21h
Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No $42 27h
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 18¢ $63 27h
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 71¢ $501 27h
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 81¢ $1,634 27h
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 59¢ $1,986 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,249.69 · official $36,253.16 (match) · 652 history records