Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5fd8…fd19
crypto · 529 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$43 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$40 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Net worth$18
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses240 / 284
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)524 / 529
History coverage514d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 5 History 524 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$22
14 days+$7
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Andrea Guerrieri 60¢ 61¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Oliver Tarvet 45¢ 46¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 76¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-31%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No $1 $0 −$0 (-43%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Zizou Bergs 70¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Laura Mair Laura Mair 15¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Paul Jubb 26¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 36¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $7 +$8 +108%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $7 +$1 +20%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $7 +$8 +109%
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Laura Mair Jun 12 $7 −$2 -30%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $9 +$5 +53%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $7 +$4 +56%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $7 +$3 +47%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $7 +$5 +67%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $7 −$6 -78%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Ilkley: August Holmgren vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Andrej Martin Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Marko Topo Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Ognjen Milic Jun 10 $7 −$5 -79%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $14 +$25 +181%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $4 +$4 +97%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $16 −$9 -56%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $8 −$7 -87%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 09 $8 +$10 +123%
Cattolica: Miguel Tobon vs Alexander Vasilev Jun 09 $7 +$9 +136%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Lloyd Harris Jun 08 $7 $0 -3%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Centurion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Patrick Zahraj Jun 08 $10 −$5 -51%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 08 $8 −$7 -88%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Remy Bertola Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Tristan Boyer Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 08 $7 +$6 +88%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava Jun 07 $7 −$1 -19%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 05 $7 +$9 +129%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $7 +$4 +50%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 05 $7 +$10 +138%
Birmingham: Alex Bolt vs Arthur Fery Jun 04 $7 +$7 +100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $7 +$9 +122%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 04 $7 +$4 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $5 +$7 +144%
Heilbronn: Max Schoenhaus vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 03 $5 +$5 +108%
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill Jun 03 $5 +$13 +257%
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 03 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 25? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 13? Jun 02 $1 $0 -25%
Hamburg European Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% +$57
crypto 41% −$101
weather 2% −$9
other 2% +$2
world 1% +$20
finance 1% −$8
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger SELL Ashlyn Krueger 95¢ $8 1h
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Andrea Guerrieri 60¢ $7 2h
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Katarzyna Kawa 47¢ $7 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $1 6h
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Oliver Tarvet 45¢ $4 7h
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Laura Mair SELL Laura Mair 14¢ $4 7h
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Laura Mair SELL Laura Mair 14¢ $1 7h
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 48¢ $7 7h
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 79¢ $7 7h
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Laura Mair BUY Laura Mair 15¢ $7 8h
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Oliver Tarvet 46¢ $3 20h
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Jacob Fearnley 84¢ $2 22h
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 40¢ $1 24h
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 76¢ $7 32h
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch BUY Dali Blanch 59¢ $7 32h
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 64¢ $7 35h
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 68¢ $7 36h
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 69¢ $1 47h
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb SELL Paul Jubb 39¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No $0 2d
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Marton Fucsovics 100¢ $30 2d
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Marton Fucsovics 39¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Marton Fucsovics 40¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Kamil Majchrzak 100¢ $8 2d
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb SELL Paul Jubb 36¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 48¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 47¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs BUY Zizou Bergs 70¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Marton Fucsovics 19¢ $0 2d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 57¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -20.6% -28.2% 38% 38% -17.0%
≤30d 110 +4.5% -5.4% 46% 45% +3.1%
≤90d 496 -8.5% -17.2% 46% 40% -12.0%
all 524 -7.9% -16.7% 46% 40% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 40% -11.8%
10% -24.7% 34% -20.3%
15% -31.9% 29% -28.0%
20% -38.6% 22% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.39 · official $18.39 (match) · 1916 history records