Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5fd6…81f6
sports · 237 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,405 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$583 · open −$611
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,050
Realized−$583
Unrealized−$611
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses158 / 70
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions9
Markets (closed)228 / 237
History coverage24d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 9 History 228 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days−$259
14 days−$504
30 days−$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 84¢ 81¢ $546 $531 −$16 (-3%)
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier OpTic Texas 86¢ 81¢ $548 $517 −$31 (-6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 81¢ 78¢ $298 $285 −$13 (-4%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 77¢ 76¢ $248 $247 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 89¢ 64¢ $299 $216 −$83 (-28%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 69¢ $135 $132 −$3 (-2%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 81¢ 50¢ $199 $122 −$77 (-39%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Vitality 81¢ 0¢ $187 $0 −$187 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Vitality 88¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 54¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Under 67¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Global Esports 80¢ 0¢ $239 $0 −$239 (-100%)
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) NRG 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Over 83¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Map Handicap: M80 (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) NRG 70¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Over 78¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Spurs 74¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Over 66¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Yes 92¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner NRG 55¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage NRG 72¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$35 +35%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $400 +$39 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $100 +$28 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$88 +88%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $150 +$54 +36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $150 −$135 -90%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $417 +$164 +39%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $99 +$14 +14%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $150 +$35 +24%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $200 +$24 +12%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $25 +$10 +38%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $50 +$16 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $40 +$10 +24%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 11 $100 +$31 +31%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 11 $25 +$9 +36%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $241 −$239 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $167 −$166 -99%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $12 −$12 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $100 −$99 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $202 +$24 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $50 −$49 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $50 +$18 +36%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $117 +$28 +24%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $87 +$22 +26%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $80 +$26 +32%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $184 +$32 +18%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $50 +$16 +32%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $100 +$20 +20%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 09 $156 +$11 +7%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $637 −$188 -30%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $401 +$21 +5%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $40 +$18 +46%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $274 +$80 +29%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $138 +$36 +26%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $25 +$18 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $113 −$113 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $131 +$26 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 +$12 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% −$1,358
other 9% +$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $136 26m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 95¢ $135 32m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 83¢ $100 54m
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY OpTic Texas 87¢ $250 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL Vitality 2¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 55¢ $251 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 82¢ $250 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 89¢ $150 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 88¢ $208 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $439 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $200 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $128 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $188 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 88¢ $200 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $250 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 87¢ $200 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 90¢ $200 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 90¢ $200 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 77¢ $100 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $150 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $150 2h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY OpTic Texas 85¢ $200 2h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 72¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 92¢ $200 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 96¢ $204 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 85¢ $149 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $150 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 8¢ $15 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -8.9% -17.6% 68% 62% -12.3%
≤30d 228 -4.0% -13.2% 69% 66% -12.9%
≤90d 228 -4.0% -13.2% 69% 66% -12.9%
all 228 -4.0% -13.2% 69% 66% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 66% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 46% -21.2%
15% -29.1% 20% -28.8%
20% -36.0% 8% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,049.84 · official $2,049.93 (match) · 605 history records