trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $1,320 | $2,256 | +$935 (+71%) |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2,492 | $1,745 | −$748 (-30%) |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1,800 | $1,559 | −$241 (-13%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $644 | $575 | −$69 (-11%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $566 | $563 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $270 | $225 | −$45 (-17%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $3,128 | +$23 | +1% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $1,449 | +$377 | +26% |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 01 | $514 | −$27 | -5% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +13.4% | +2.6% | 100% | 50% | -1.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +7.1% | -3.1% | 67% | 33% | -2.9% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +7.1% | -3.1% | 67% | 33% | -2.9% |
| all | 3 | +7.1% | -3.1% | 67% | 33% | -2.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.1% | 33% | -2.9% |
| 10% | -12.3% | 33% | -12.2% |
| 15% | -20.8% | 0% | -20.7% |
| 20% | -28.6% | 0% | -28.5% |