Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fd2…5ded sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,152 (-5%) realized −$1,293 · open +$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day96.0pace
Fees−$542est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,009
other 9% −$524
crypto 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +34.2% +21.4% 29% 26% -15.0%
≤30d 34 +34.2% +21.4% 29% 26% -15.0%
≤90d 34 +34.2% +21.4% 29% 26% -15.0%
all 34 +34.2% +21.4% 29% 26% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.4% 26% -15.0%
10% +9.8% 26% -23.1%
15% ← realistic here -0.8% 21% -30.5%
20% -10.6% 21% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +73% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$416 vs −$245 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized−$1,293
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$542
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage2d
Avg bet$599
Trades / day96.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 7¢ 14¢ $150 $292 +$142 (+95%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner EDward Gaming 57¢ 56¢ $171 $169 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 +$207 +203%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$89 -87%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5,266 +$1,752 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,316 −$991 -75%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,183 +$312 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $169 −$164 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $404 −$400 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$453 +442%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,853 −$897 -48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $63 −$61 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,517 −$1,500 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $718 −$479 -67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $100 +$155 +155%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $133 +$133 +100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $745 +$667 +90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $103 +$306 +298%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,019 −$236 -12%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $107 −$105 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $35 −$34 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $155 −$18 -11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $74 +$63 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $700 −$451 -64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $385 −$100 -26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4,508 +$114 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $173 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $309 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $13 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $31 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $64 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $161 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $36 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $131 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $72 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $88 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $203 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $4 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $94 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $163 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $455 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $151 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 63¢ $1,096 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $15 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $832 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $110 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $94 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $4 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $109 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $3,132 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $966 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $3,144 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.71 · official $461.74 (match) · 181 history records