Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

5F 0x5fd0…3171 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$556 (+216%) realized +$556 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +129% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +76% what you keep after slip

Net edge+76%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day25.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+107.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+129.0%	+107.2%	67%	67%	+186.5%
≤30d	15	+129.0%	+107.2%	67%	67%	+186.5%
≤90d	15	+129.0%	+107.2%	67%	67%	+186.5%
all	15	+129.0%	+107.2%	67%	67%	+186.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover25.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+107.2%	67%	+186.5%
10% ← realistic here	+87.3%	67%	+159.0%
15%	+69.2%	60%	+134.0%
20%	+52.6%	60%	+111.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +217% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +129% · $-wt +217% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +62% → late +188% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$59 vs −$6 · ×9.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×18.53 per $1 lost it wins $18.53

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$556

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)15 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day25.0

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 15 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 23	$48	+$381	+797%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 23	$37	+$69	+189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 23	$58	+$19	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 23	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 23	$10	+$22	+208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$32	+126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 23	$5	+$19	+351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$13	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 23	$5	+$10	+190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 23	$5	+$20	+374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 23	$4	+$4	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 23	$6	−$6	-86%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$27	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$11	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$11	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$11	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$26	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$27	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$5	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$26	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$5	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$5	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$10	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$10	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$10	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$5	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$5	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$4	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	SELL Up	21¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$1	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records