Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5F 0x5fcc…6eb9 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,218 (-7%) realized −$1,217 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%55W / 1L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$16
politics 29% −$1,236
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -17.1%
10% -18.3% 0% -25.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -32.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1,236 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$2,510
Realized−$1,217
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses55 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage616d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,190 $1,188 −$2 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $960 $960 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? No 99¢ 100¢ $361 $362 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2,029 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? Jun 22 $480 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,480 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $754 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $270 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $850 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,650 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 10 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Feb 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Feb 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Feb 19 $28 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Feb 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Feb 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Feb 19 $41 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Feb 19 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Oct 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 10 $4 $0 +1%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Oct 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Se Oct 10 $5 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by September 30? Oct 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem Oct 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 10 $56 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $270 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 26 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $361 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,190 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $960 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,029 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $480 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $270 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $754 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,480 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $850 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,650 6d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 104d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $24 104d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 104d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 104d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $25 104d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $64 104d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $44 123d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $44 123d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 123d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $85 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $5 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $49 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $24 256d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? BUY No 99¢ $28 256d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 100¢ $26 256d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $36 256d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? BUY No 99¢ $45 256d
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? BUY No 99¢ $41 256d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $34 256d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $46 281d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,509.93 · official $2,509.93 (match) · 122 history records