Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fcb…9cc0 politics 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate12%5W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$3
other 24% $0
politics 18% $0
crypto 4% −$2
economics 1% −$1
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -10.0%
all 41 -2.2% -11.5% 12% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -10.2%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses5 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage253d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $52 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $43 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $161 −$3 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $8 −$1 -11%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $2 $0 -6%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Nov 20 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $6 +$1 +9%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 21 $12 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 21 $1 $0 +11%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Oct 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 17 $14 −$2 -11%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $52 5m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $52 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $43 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $9 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $34 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $52 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $52 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $52 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $52 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $52 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $52 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records