Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fcb…e95f other 81 markets active 3d ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$376 (-8%) realized −$375 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days+$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$566
sports 19% +$62
politics 6% +$130
world 2% −$3
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% −$2
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -29.0% -35.8% 42% 26% -22.4%
≤30d 20 -24.3% -31.5% 45% 30% +38.2%
≤90d 43 -28.3% -35.1% 30% 23% +21.6%
all 80 -25.2% -32.3% 35% 26% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 26% -17.2%
10% -38.8% 22% -25.1%
15% -44.7% 16% -32.4%
20% -50.1% 11% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$21 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$375
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 52
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage588d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +47%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $503 +$334 +66%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 06 $36 −$14 -39%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 22 $8 −$5 -65%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $9 +$4 +47%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 21 $1 $0 -10%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Mar 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February? Mar 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17? Mar 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $13 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $11 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $12 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 6d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 3¢ $0 6d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 17¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.95 · official $2.95 (match) · 204 history records