Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5fca…b025
crypto · 85 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$99 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$112 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$115
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses40 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage16d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 4 History 81 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$200
14 days−$194
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $31 $36 +$6 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +57%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 $0 -13%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -68%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$9 +668%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -80%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$22 +468%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $13 +$2 +12%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $22 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $46 +$6 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 01 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 01 $12 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 01 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 01 $22 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% −$113
other 15% −$8
sports 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 35m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 35m
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 3h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 7h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 7h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 30h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 30h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 31h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 31h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 31h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 31h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 34h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 35h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 37h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 38h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 38h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -36.1% -42.2% 25% 20% -59.4%
≤30d 81 -11.2% -19.6% 49% 41% -17.0%
≤90d 81 -11.2% -19.6% 49% 41% -17.0%
all 81 -11.2% -19.6% 49% 41% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 41% -17.0%
10% -27.3% 33% -24.9%
15% -34.4% 20% -32.2%
20% -40.8% 15% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.45 · official $115.45 (match) · 277 history records