Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5F 0x5fc7…404b other 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,364 (-1%) realized −$1,363 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%33W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$905per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$947now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$122
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$373
politics 34% −$63
sports 6% −$1,694
world 3% +$5
tech 2% −$3
culture 1% −$3
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -5.4% -14.4% 9% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 108 -11.0% -19.5% 5% 1% -11.1%
all 167 +5.4% -4.7% 20% 11% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 11% -10.3%
10% -13.8% 11% -18.9%
15% -22.1% 10% -26.8%
20% -29.8% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,347) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$18 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$947
Realized−$1,363
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses33 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)167 / 169
History coverage156d
Avg bet$905
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $640 $639 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $309 $308 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,437 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $913 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,536 −$3 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $901 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 07 $993 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $775 −$1 -0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 06 $46 −$46 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $55 −$55 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,450 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $359 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $940 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $3,245 −$4 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 25 $58 +$69 +119%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $3,058 −$4 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $614 −$1 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $3,298 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2,498 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,072 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,462 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,691 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $2,107 −$3 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $4,584 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $2,261 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $640 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $654 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $655 3h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $599 34h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $600 43h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $309 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $792 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $794 2d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $911 5d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $913 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $629 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $630 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $495 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $496 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $716 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $717 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $708 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $709 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $900 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $901 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $992 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $993 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $774 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $775 8d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 43¢ $46 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $836 11d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $838 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $927 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $928 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $947 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $947.16 · official $947.16 (match) · 526 history records