Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fc1…647a weather 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,348 (+2%) realized +$1,350 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate65%140W / 76L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$112
14 days−$169
30 days+$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$822
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -25.9% -32.9% 46% 33% -9.1%
≤30d 107 -9.0% -17.6% 64% 35% -8.2%
≤90d 216 -7.2% -16.0% 65% 34% -8.3%
all 216 -7.2% -16.0% 65% 34% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 34% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 18% -17.1%
15% -31.4% 12% -25.1%
20% -38.1% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$98 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized+$1,350
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses140 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)216 / 211
History coverage62d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? No 94¢ 93¢ $257 $255 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 15? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 15? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 15? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or below on June 15? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$42 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $483 +$78 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $122 +$21 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $825 +$51 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $166 +$199 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,158 +$292 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $467 −$314 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $462 −$9 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $247 −$9 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $207 −$204 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $482 −$221 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $260 +$24 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,185 +$121 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 −$89 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $574 −$333 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $126 −$60 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$16 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $81 +$52 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $480 +$372 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $436 −$81 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $305 +$33 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $162 +$46 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $160 −$56 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,120 +$129 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $874 −$427 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $642 +$35 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,276 +$185 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $604 −$104 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,057 +$49 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1,157 +$143 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $347 +$93 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $210 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $160 +$40 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $726 +$32 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $613 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $868 +$112 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $78 −$77 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $213 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,211 −$10 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $783 −$782 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,137 +$129 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 37m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $59 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $195 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $64 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $342 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $72 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $876 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 23h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $825 23h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $62 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $60 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $18 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $192 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $331 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.39 · official $255.81 (match) · 2025 history records