Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fc1…28a5 other 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 238L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$45
sports 23% −$20
politics 8% −$8
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% −$6
crypto 4% −$5
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage135d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $310 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $318 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $736 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $783 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $242 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $581 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $307 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $141 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $284 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $143 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $341 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $364 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $371 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $533 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $684 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $74 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 29 $579 −$2 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $379 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 3h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 4h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 9h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 15h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 16h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 28h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 34h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 36h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 37h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 39h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $63 40h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $64 41h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $64 3d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $64 3d
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.73 · official $62.73 (match) · 1407 history records