Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5F 0x5fbb…53c4 other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,263 (-18%) realized −$3,270 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%44W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$1,189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$526
14 days−$526
30 days−$703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$3,094
sports 7% −$70
politics 2% −$190
world 1% +$5
finance 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -55.3% -59.6% 30% 30% -33.0%
≤30d 12 -54.7% -59.1% 25% 25% -37.3%
≤90d 54 -33.8% -40.1% 33% 30% -41.9%
all 93 -19.3% -27.0% 47% 39% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 39% -27.8%
10% -34.0% 31% -34.7%
15% -40.4% 23% -41.0%
20% -46.2% 18% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$141 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$1,189
Realized−$3,270
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses44 / 49
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions9
Markets (closed)93 / 102
History coverage242d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $157 $156 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$52 +26%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -100%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $707 +$356 +50%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $485 −$479 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $304 −$205 -68%
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 20 $180 −$174 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? May 20 $92 −$3 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? May 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $465 +$285 +61%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 17 $101 +$49 +49%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $200 +$165 +82%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $466 +$25 +5%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $473 −$465 -98%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $298 −$17 -6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova May 07 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 06 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $74 +$26 +35%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $182 −$180 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 0 Brentford FC? Apr 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $200 +$219 +110%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $200 +$48 +24%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Apr 23 $200 −$199 -100%
Madrid Open: Camila Osorio vs Naomi Osaka Apr 23 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $200 +$49 +24%
Jarrod Bowen: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 19 $100 +$111 +111%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $110 −$83 -76%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 +$32 +324%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 +$367 +367%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Apr 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Apr 19 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Apr 19 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-01-17? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Apr 19 $224 −$224 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-07? Apr 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Jaguars vs. Colts Apr 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $158 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 40h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,063 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $485 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 5d
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY Yes 6¢ $180 28d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 34¢ $93 28d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 65¢ $89 28d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 66¢ $92 30d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 30d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 30d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 30d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 30d
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 14¢ $103 30d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $750 30d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 31d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 31d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 67¢ $101 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,189.08 · official $1,189.08 (match) · 257 history records