Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fba…668c world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate54%22W / 19L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
politics 26% +$5
other 22% +$16
weather 5% $0
finance 3% −$2
crypto 2% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.6% -8.0% 50% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 0% -9.6%
all 41 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 5% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -8.3%
10% -18.4% 2% -17.1%
15% -26.3% 2% -25.1%
20% -33.5% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses22 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage481d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $115 −$2 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $24 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $22 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $53 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +19%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $72 $0 -0%
Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday? Apr 03 $5 −$2 -35%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Apr 02 $77 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Mar 31 $77 $0 -1%
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged before April? Mar 30 $76 $0 +0%
Istanbul mayor İmamoğlu released from custody in March? Mar 29 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 29 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 25 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Mar 24 $29 $0 -0%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $43 +$3 +8%
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross between 1-2m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $27 +$20 +77%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $47 −$2 -4%
Will another racer win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 21 $5 $0 -2%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 21 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Mar 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 17 $56 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $48 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $4 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $24 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $51 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $51 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $29 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $3 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $41 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $44 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records