Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fb8…8489 crypto 567 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$800 (+4%) realized +$944 · open −$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%252W / 297L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days+$538
14 days+$428
30 days−$1,278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$917
other 14% +$5
sports 8% +$659
world 4% +$155
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +15.1% +4.1% 70% 70% +6.2%
≤30d 327 -31.3% -37.8% 32% 30% -19.0%
≤90d 549 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 43% -9.3%
all 549 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 43% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 43% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 37% -18.0%
15% -31.0% 29% -25.9%
20% -37.7% 23% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized+$944
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses252 / 297
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions18
Markets (closed)549 / 567
History coverage71d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 62¢ 61¢ $267 $264 −$3 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $170 $230 +$60 (+35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $55 $45 −$10 (-18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-34%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
World Cup: Winless Team? No 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 28¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$120 +60%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$95 -94%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $508 +$101 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $482 −$231 -48%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$31 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$9 +101%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$6 +46%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $396 +$226 +57%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $474 +$162 +34%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$10 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$31 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$38 +37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$109 +107%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $266 +$99 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $37 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $154 +$23 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $122 −$62 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $106 +$63 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $105 −$96 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $204 +$82 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 08 $41 −$34 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 08 $24 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 28¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 0¢ $0 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 2¢ $1 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 4¢ $6 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $51 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $20 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $508 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 31¢ $108 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $143 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $380 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.81 · official $617.64 (match) · 2486 history records