Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fb8…36bc other 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%17W / 140L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$14
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$33
politics 24% −$20
sports 21% −$19
crypto 8% −$4
world 5% −$7
economics 3% −$5
culture 3% −$5
finance 2% −$4
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 52 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 138 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 157 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses17 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage105d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $217 −$3 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $211 −$3 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $150 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $143 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $58 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 05 $50 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $111 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $46 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $108 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $57 −$1 -3%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $50 $0 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $146 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $104 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $106 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $419 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $600 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $94 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $158 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $42 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $177 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $44 8d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $24 8d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $20 8d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $45 8d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $46 8d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $56 8d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $49 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $50 9d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $41 9d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $41 9d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 9d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 9d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $61 9d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $61 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $40 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $40 10d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 10d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 10d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 10d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 10d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $61 10d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $61 11d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $47 11d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $48 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $47 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 11d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 11d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.75 · official $55.75 (match) · 670 history records