Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fb7…1fcc world 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%37W / 61L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$4
14 days−$36
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$74
sports 36% −$2
other 18% +$10
politics 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 29 -0.9% -10.4% 45% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 46 -3.2% -12.4% 41% 2% -10.0%
all 98 +0.4% -9.1% 38% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 4% -9.9%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses37 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage470d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $219 +$1 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $301 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $202 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $100 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $303 +$6 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $167 −$14 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $114 −$8 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $136 −$20 -15%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $135 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $140 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $135 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $149 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $135 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $149 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $224 +$3 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $132 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $269 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $131 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $148 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $5 −$1 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $239 +$4 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $304 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $260 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $143 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $150 −$56 -37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $169 +$8 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $65 +$7 +11%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 23 $507 +$2 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $138 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $17 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $1,219 −$3 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $225 +$6 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,916 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $958 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $957 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $768 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 17 $1,056 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $67 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $62 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $110 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $110 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $100 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $100 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $100 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $100 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $16 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $84 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $100 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $100 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $110 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $109 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $75 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $25 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $101 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $26 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $101 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $102 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $2 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $100 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $100 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $74 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $73 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 366 history records