Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5fb4…a6b5 politics 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,568 (+1%) realized +$1,568 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%29W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$1,653per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$19
14 days−$98
30 days−$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$2,178
politics 38% −$103
sports 14% −$522
culture 3% −$8
tech 3% −$8
economics 1% −$3
crypto 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 -15.1% -23.2% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 111 -12.3% -20.7% 7% 3% -10.2%
all 146 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 13% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 13% -8.9%
10% -19.0% 12% -17.7%
15% -26.8% 10% -25.6%
20% -34.0% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,511) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$16 · ×7.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized+$1,568
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses29 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,653
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $387 $387 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,892 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $6,318 −$9 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $4,586 −$7 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,511 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,063 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4,625 −$5 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,767 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $3,825 −$6 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,966 −$4 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,564 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $584 +$2 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $3,760 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,982 −$5 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $1,288 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $3,261 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 20 $2,940 −$5 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $2,878 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? May 19 $727 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,673 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,415 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2,987 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,404 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $387 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $586 18h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $587 19h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $582 20h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $583 21h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $265 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $266 26h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,137 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,138 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,037 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,069 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,070 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,066 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,068 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,134 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,062 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,063 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $945 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $946 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $864 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $866 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,005 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,006 9d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $250 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,142 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,144 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.56 · official $386.56 (match) · 519 history records